요 약 ·····················································1

제1장 추진경과 ··········································11

1. 국민연금 재정계산의 도입배경 및 추진근거 ············13

2. 제1·2차 재정계산 추진 개요 ···························14

3. 추진여건과 기본방향 ·································15

4. 추진체계 ············································17

5. 추진경과 ············································19

제2장 재정추계의 여건변화 ································21

1. 인구 및 경제여건의 변화 ·····························23

2. 제도여건의 변화 ·····································25

제3장 추계방법 ···········································27

1. 추계모형 ···········································29

2. 추계방법 ············································30

제4장 주요가정 ···········································39

1. 인구변수 가정 ·······································41

2. 경제변수 가정 ······································46

3. 제도변수 가정 ·······································47

제5장 추계결과 ···········································53

1. 추계기간 ············································55

2. 인구구조 ············································55

3. 재정추계결과 ········································61

제6장 민감도분석(Sensitivity Test) ··························67

1. 민감도분석을 위한 시나리오 ··························69

2. 민감도분석 결과 ·····································74

제7장 재정평가 ···········································79

1. 재정평가 방법 및 기준 ·······························81

2. 재정목표 달성을 위한 보험료율 ·······················83

첨  부  1. 제3차 국민연금 장기 재정전망 설명자료

          2. 제3차 국민연금 장기 재정전망 보고서