목. 차.

요. 약. ························································································································ 11

제1장서론················································································································ 30

제1절연구배경및연구목적··················································································· 30

제2절연구내용······································································································ 32

제3절연구방법······································································································ 33

제2장인구추계이론및외국사례고찰········································································ 34

제1절인구추계개념및기본원칙··········································································· 34

제2절인구추계방법······························································································ 37

제3절조성법구성요소와기본특성········································································· 41

제4절기존공식인구추계가정비교······································································ 55

제5절외국사례고찰······························································································ 60

제3장인구추계모형구축··························································································· 66

제1절인구변동요인변화규칙설정········································································ 66

제2절인구추계프로그램입력················································································· 93

제3절인구추계프로그램연산················································································ 100

제4절인구추계프로그램실행················································································ 104

제5절인구추계프로그램결과출력········································································· 105

제4장인구추계모형적용결과·················································································· 110

제1절기준인구및인구변동요인가정··································································· 110

제2절인구변동전망··························································································· 126

제5장결론··············································································································· 139

참고문헌·················································································································· 142

부록····················································································································· 146