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US Business Cycle Predictability and Investment Strategy

- Focusing on Stock and Bond Market

Sohn Kyoung Woo, Deputy Research Fellow, NPRI

Choi Young Min, Deputy Research Fellow, NPRI

Ⅰ. Introduction

II. Business Cycle and Stock Market Cycle

1. Business Cycle

2. Business Cycle and Stock Market

Ⅲ. Forecast of Stock Market and Investment Strategies

1. Forecast of Business Cycle

2. Forecast of Stock Market

3. Investment Strategies: Out of Sample Test

Ⅳ. Conclusion

V. References

• Attach
• (연구보고서 2015-05)US Business Cycle Predictability and Investment Strategy.pdf